To Succeed, Do the Wrong Thing
It is surprising just how obscure and uncertain the world of tech is, and how deviant new technologies and software products are from the status quo. It is also difficult for us to conceptualize and predict exponential growth (notice the shock from people around you or the media about covid-19 cases jumping higher everyday when they are following pretty standard exponential curves), network effects, changes to our way of life, and even the future. In that case, how do we successfully build and create value for an uncertain future when we are biologically primed to seek certainty and assume predictability?
Sometimes, the approach is to do things that seem counterintuitive, that seem wrong to us based on our existing beliefs. I think that if we can expand our perspective and consider seemingly counterintuitive options, we can take advantage of compound growth and improve at a continually higher rate in the future. Furthermore, this way of thinking and acting in a contrarian way is a common pattern of successful entrepreneurs and investors. Reconsidering your long-held assumptions and beliefs is the first step along this path.
The interesting thing about acting counterintuitively is that in the short term, you will be met with heavy opposition. This can originate externally, as people will often object to contrarian or “heretic” behavior, and also internally, as cognitive dissonance mounts and you begin to question and doubt yourself. However, it is the willingness to stick through these oppositions that can reap great benefits.
Take for example the classic comparison between an exponential and linear growth curve (see graph below). For maximum benefit, anyone will say that exponential is the obvious choice, but the interesting thing about the exponential curve is that it often starts very slowly, resulting in a frustratingly unnoticeable change. For the time being, as you look up to the linear growth, you wish you could have it, as it has begun improving at a higher level initially. This results in the counterintuitive chasm, which I’ll define as the short term period in which the traditional path is more beneficial than the contrarian path But after this period, the exponential (contrarian) curve quickly surpasses and hits the “target” in a shorter time frame. Here, the target refers to outsized success (top 1-5% of maximum individual potential). This is not to say that the traditional path cannot result in moderate success, or even outsized success at a longer time horizon.
This way of doing the “wrong” thing does not necessarily apply to every aspect of life, but there are some specific examples where this mindset might help:
Financial Wealth - Sometimes you have to choose a role or opportunity that does not pay you much, but at which you will quickly learn many skills or have significant equity/stake in the company’s success. This means you will make less on paper initially, but your skills/equity can translate to outsized wealth. Another path may entail just forgoing pay completely to pursue a project you are passionate about. You will be surprised to find how applicable this experience will be to higher paying opportunities.
Getting in Shape - Sometimes the counterintuitive approach to health is to forget about how you look and instead focus on quality of food and exercise. You will develop habits that will prevail in the long term, and a significant side effect might be that you look your best. The traditional approach of immediately dieting and making fast progress might put you on the linear path to the target, but it is likely to backfire in the long term
Raising Children - The prevailing school of thought is that you must tell your children what to do and that if they obey, they will turn out well. The counterintuitive approach would be to let them explore what they like and let them decide the rules with you. The perceived lack of control in the short term may result in a happier, more independent child in the long run.
Fear of Rejection - Many people do not achieve what they truly desire because they have developed a fear of rejection and conjure up an exaggerated fantasy about the consequences of being rejected. A clever counterintuitive approach to this fear was implemented by Jia Jiang, as he intentionally sought rejection at every opportunity. In the short term, all he received were blank stares and discomfort, but this courage compounded over time. Now, his ability to avoid this fear has far surpassed that of someone that will linearly avoid rejection over time.
Dating - When people strongly desire a relationship, they quickly jump to dating apps and social events. This may seem like the obvious approach, and in the short term may result in a relationship or two (the traditional approach, at least in America, usually results in low relationship satisfaction). But sometimes the best option here is to take some time before even pursuing a partner, and focus internally on becoming healthier, happier, independent, and emotionally intelligent. This self-improvement will likely result in a higher likelihood of finding and maintaining a long term relationship.
Societal Fear - Warren Buffet famously said to be greedy when others are fearful, and has become one of the world’s best investors because of this contrarian mindset. Sometimes, the best opportunities are found in the lower end of the counterintuitive chasm where people are either too afraid or too overconfident to look. Some of the great tech companies we know today, such as Uber, Airbnb, and GitHub, came out of the 2008 financial crisis, when most people thought it absurd to start a company
This is not to say that a traditional approach is a bad one, or that you should just delay short term benefits for some abstract long term gain. But too often the counterintuitive approach is laughed off and most people will not consider it because of its inherent short term friction. I’d argue that sometimes the “wrong” thing can be very lucrative in the end.